IPL 2023 Playoffs Chances: All IPL Teams still alive for top four berths | Cricket News


To say that IPL 2023 has been an extremely open season so far would be an understatement. All 10 teams are still mathematically alive in the race for the four playoff berths.
With 16 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there remain over 65,000 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, one team is almost certain to make the play-offs, two others are strong favourites to do so and none of the others is as yet definitely out and any of them can in fact tie for top spot.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Wednesday, May 10 morning:
1.GT are already almost certain to finish in one of the top four slots in terms of points. The lowest they can finish is tied third with one or more teams and that is in a mere 180 out of the over 65,500 combinations of match results that remain. That gives them a 100% chance of making the top four on points, though it is still theoretically possible that they miss out on NRR.
2. CSK’s chances of making it to the top four on points are also very good at 85.2% with nearly 56,000 of the remaining combinations of results putting them in that bracket either singly or jointly.
3. Tuesday’s win has moved MI to third spot and boosted their chances of making the top four on points, which now stand at 76.6 or a little better than three in four, though this includes situations in which NRR could come into play.
4. Despite being in fourth spot currently, LSG are more likely than not to miss out with a 46% chance of getting into the top four and even that includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth, some of them with multiple teams.
5. Currently in fifth place, RR‘s chances of making the top four on points are just a bit better than one in three, or 36.6% and once again that includes scenarios with two or more teams tied for the fourth spot.
6.KKR are now in sixth spot, but their chances of finishing in the top four in terms of points, either singly or jointly, are a tad better than RR’s at 37.2%.
7. Monday’s loss to KKR means that PBKS too have just a little more than a one in three chance of finishing among the top four on points – singly or jointly. To be precise they have a 36% chance of achieving that.
8. Tuesday’s loss to MI has severely dented RCB‘s chances of finishing in the top four, which are down to 35.3%, and even this includes situations of teams tied on points for the last spot.
9. Ninth placed SRH have less than a one in four (23.8%) chance of finishing among the top four on points, but this tournament has been so even that they can still finish tied for the top spot if they win all their remaining games.
10. Languishing at or near the bottom for most of the tournament, DC can still make it to the play-offs and even top. Their chances of making the top four are no more than 22.7%, but even they can tie for fourth spot.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We look at all 65,000-odd possible combinations of results with 16 matches remaining. We assume that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 65,536 possible result combinations, GT finishes first to fourth on points in all of them. That translates to a 100% chance. And only in 16 of those combinations are they even tied for fourth spot. So, GT are as good as through. We do not take net run rates or no results (NR) into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.


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